Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccc9…39e4 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-42%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$45
crypto 23% −$13
tech 22% −$28
finance 19% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -52.3% -56.8% 25% 25% -15.3%
≤30d 8 -52.3% -56.8% 25% 25% -15.3%
≤90d 8 -52.3% -56.8% 25% 25% -15.3%
all 11 -43.6% -48.9% 27% 27% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 27% -24.5%
10% -53.8% 27% -31.7%
15% -58.3% 27% -38.3%
20% -62.4% 18% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage190d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$36 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 1PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 8 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 9 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 13? Dec 12 $8 −$7 -86%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 10 Dec 10 $7 +$9 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.79 · official $62.79 (match) · 26 history records