trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1,828 | $641 | −$1,188 (-65%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $20 | $15 | −$5 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 06 | $11,664 | −$1,579 | -14% |
| Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET | Jun 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 04 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 29 | $3,911 | −$396 | -10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $2,239 | +$3,007 | +134% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | May 22 | $17 | −$1 | -6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -13.5% | -21.8% | 0% | 0% | -21.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 33% | 17% | -4.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 33% | 17% | -4.3% |
| all | 6 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 33% | 17% | -4.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -8.7% | 17% | -4.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -17.4% | 17% | -13.5% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 17% | -21.8% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 17% | -29.5% |