Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccc5…a53c crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$5
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 44% -10.5%
≤30d 48 -2.1% -11.5% 52% 46% -14.6%
≤90d 48 -2.1% -11.5% 52% 46% -14.6%
all 48 -2.1% -11.5% 52% 46% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 46% -14.6%
10% -19.9% 35% -22.8%
15% -27.7% 33% -30.3%
20% -34.8% 29% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 20 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 20 $1 +$3 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 22¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records