Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xccc4…4193
crypto · 1708 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,006 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$377 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses841 / 644
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1485 / 1708
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day364.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 25 History 1485 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$377
14 days+$377
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 46¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Panama vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 80¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) DR Congo 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemund Mihalikova/Nicholls 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 80¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 87¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - January 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -202%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -201%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -202%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$1 -200%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -167%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$20 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
XRP Up or Down - December 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% +$542
sports 7% +$345
other 4% +$24
weather 2% +$10
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 10m
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 11m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 50m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $1 52m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Mihalikova/Nicholls 56¢ $1 55m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Curaçao 73¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1485 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 51% +12.4%
≤30d 1485 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 51% +12.4%
≤90d 1485 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 51% +12.4%
all 1485 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 51% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover364.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 51% +12.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 48% +1.7%
15% -20.2% 44% -8.2%
20% -28.1% 39% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.60 · official $26.61 (match) · 3500 history records