Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccc0…1695 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$60 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%48W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$19
14 days−$33
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$47
sports 6% +$14
crypto 1% −$8
world 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.8% +4.7% 80% 80% -2.0%
≤30d 18 -4.7% -13.7% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤90d 74 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 39% -11.5%
all 74 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 39% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 39% -11.5%
10% -18.7% 32% -19.9%
15% -26.6% 31% -27.7%
20% -33.8% 24% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses48 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage81d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+17%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $54 +$12 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 +$18 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 −$40 -67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$15 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +109%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +44%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $16 +$19 +119%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $24 −$24 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$24 +90%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 −$10 -99%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? May 22 $32 +$18 +57%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $31 +$19 +62%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $16 −$15 -99%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $24 +$17 +70%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $42 +$8 +18%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will AS Saint-Étienne vs. Rodez Aveyron Football end in a draw? May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $83 +$3 +4%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $86 +$4 +5%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $146 −$140 -96%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $126 +$14 +11%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $116 +$11 +10%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $111 +$4 +4%
Will FC København win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $108 +$3 +3%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-04-08? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $66 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $54 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $59 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 11d
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 13d
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 25d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 31d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 31d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 31d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 35d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 35d
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $0 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.17 · official $71.17 (match) · 165 history records