Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccc0…a1d5 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-26%) realized −$100 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 25% -37.8%
≤30d 8 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 25% -37.8%
≤90d 8 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 25% -37.8%
all 8 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 25% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 25% -37.8%
10% -53.6% 25% -43.7%
15% -58.1% 25% -49.2%
20% -62.2% 25% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ 48¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ 40¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 35¢ 34¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 35¢ 34¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $125 −$22 -17%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $17 +$17 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $57 +$40 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $9 2m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $13 33m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $11 57m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $22 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $10 45h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $18 45h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $51 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $28 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $41 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $25 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $72 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $17 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $57 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.92 · official $53.92 (match) · 22 history records