Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CC 0xccbf…2728 world 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$86 (-2%) realized −$85 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$6
sports 37% −$81
politics 17% −$1
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.0% 25% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 15 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 0% -11.7%
all 15 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 0% -11.7%
10% -33.8% 0% -20.1%
15% -40.2% 0% -27.8%
20% -46.1% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage88d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $437 $436 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $226 −$6 -3%
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) May 24 $485 +$25 +5%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 23 $485 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) May 22 $473 +$12 +2%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? May 21 $465 $0 +0%
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) May 19 $480 +$25 +5%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? May 16 $485 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 03 $25 +$1 +4%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $29 $0 +0%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Apr 19 $18 $0 +0%
Slovakia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Mar 26 $5 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $437 13m
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 SELL No 96¢ $240 17m
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $240 1h
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $220 6d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $226 6d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $225 7d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $226 7d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY FC Internazionale Milano 95¢ $485 30d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $485 30d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $485 30d
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) BUY AFC Ajax 98¢ $473 32d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $465 32d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $465 32d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) BUY SK Brann 95¢ $480 37d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $485 37d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $485 37d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $13 50d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $13 50d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $13 51d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $12 51d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes $15 63d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes $14 63d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes $15 63d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes $14 63d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) BUY Kasımpaşa SK $20 64d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) BUY Kasımpaşa SK $20 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes $8 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes $1 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes $9 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? BUY Yes $9 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.70 · official $441.52 · 39 history records