Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccbb…3bed crypto 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%129W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$71
other 10% −$39
sports 4% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 48% -10.2%
≤30d 217 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 48% -10.2%
≤90d 217 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 48% -10.2%
all 217 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 48% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 48% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 39% -18.8%
15% -28.2% 29% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses129 / 88
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)217 / 218
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Yes 49¢ 63¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $9 +$17 +197%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 23 $12 −$11 -93%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -10%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +94%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +129%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$1 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $38 +$94 +249%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 15m
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $26 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 33¢ $9 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 19h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $10 20h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals SELL Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $2 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $20 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.29 · official $10.04 (match) · 476 history records