trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 17% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 20% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 20% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 27 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 41% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.5% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 0% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | -11% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $30 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $80 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $30 | $0 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 03 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 | Jul 01 | $3 | −$3 | -74% |
| Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 05 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | May 06 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 28 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 23 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? | Mar 17 | $11 | $0 | +2% |