Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CC 0xccb3…680b sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+19%) realized +$35 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$13
other 13% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.7% +38.2% 75% 75% +57.7%
≤30d 4 +52.7% +38.2% 75% 75% +57.7%
≤90d 4 +52.7% +38.2% 75% 75% +57.7%
all 4 +52.7% +38.2% 75% 75% +57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.2% 75% +57.7%
10% +25.0% 50% +42.6%
15% +12.9% 25% +28.8%
20% +1.8% 25% +16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.0 per $1 lost it wins $6.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +234%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $34 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06-1 BUY 19¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY 14¢ $2 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.35 · official $9.44 · 17 history records