trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $1 | −$3 (-83%) |
| Royals vs. Angels | Angels | 47¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Georgia vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 24¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Colorado vs. West Virginia | Colorado | 34¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Wild vs. Canucks | Wild | 59¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Indiana vs. Penn State | Penn State | 16¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Blackhawks vs. Kings | Blackhawks | 36¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Rockies vs. Mariners | Rockies | 27¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Temple vs. Army | Temple | 31¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders | BYU | 24¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Northwestern vs. USC | Northwestern | 15¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Raptors vs. Kings | Kings | 53¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Trail Blazers | 27¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Jets vs. Oilers | Jets | 38¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Twins vs. Phillies | Twins | 46¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Rangers vs. Nationals | Nationals | 44¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Hawks vs. Mavericks | Hawks | 37¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | Jun 14 | $581 | −$5 | -1% |
| LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner | Jun 14 | $104 | −$2 | -2% |
| LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs | May 31 | $9 | $0 | -3% |
| Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup | May 31 | $505 | −$4 | -1% |
| Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi | May 31 | $255 | −$3 | -1% |
| Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | Apr 19 | $287 | +$6 | +2% |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | Apr 19 | $96 | $0 | +0% |
| Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | Apr 19 | $132 | −$2 | -1% |
| LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP R | Apr 19 | $345 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Mar 11 | $5 | +$2 | +33% |
| Red Wings vs. Kraken | Feb 13 | $5 | +$4 | +89% |
| Tulane vs. Memphis | Dec 07 | $6 | +$9 | +144% |
| Jets vs. Oilers | Dec 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Canucks | Dec 07 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Blackhawks vs. Kings | Dec 07 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Colorado vs. West Virginia | Nov 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Georgia vs. Mississippi State | Nov 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Temple vs. Army | Nov 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders | Nov 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Indiana vs. Penn State | Nov 08 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Northwestern vs. USC | Nov 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Kings | Oct 08 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Oct 08 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Phillies | Sep 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Rockies vs. Mariners | Sep 26 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Royals vs. Angels | Sep 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Mets vs. Reds | Sep 26 | $5 | +$4 | +85% |
| Royals vs. White Sox | Sep 05 | $5 | +$3 | +70% |
| Phillies vs. Athletics | Sep 05 | $5 | +$4 | +82% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Reds | Sep 05 | $5 | +$6 | +112% |
| Rangers vs. Nationals | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Mavericks | Apr 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Pacers | Apr 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Raptors | Apr 02 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Bucks | Apr 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers | Apr 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Pelicans | Apr 02 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | Apr 02 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Spurs | Apr 02 | $5 | +$8 | +150% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Lakers | Feb 23 | $5 | +$1 | +25% |
| Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 | Feb 23 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Chiefs vs. Steelers | Jan 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jan 02 | $5 | +$1 | +30% |
| Ravens vs. Texans | Jan 02 | $5 | +$2 | +41% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 0% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 0% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 22% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 45 | -32.0% | -38.5% | 33% | 24% | -13.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.5% | 24% | -13.2% |
| 10% | -44.3% | 24% | -21.5% |
| 15% | -49.7% | 18% | -29.1% |
| 20% | -54.7% | 16% | -36.0% |