Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccae…d37a crypto 1105 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,316 (-17%) realized −$1,316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%561W / 544L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$388
7 days−$388
14 days−$388
30 days−$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$1,291
politics 17% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -33.2% -39.6% 0% 0% -39.6%
≤30d 1 -33.2% -39.6% 0% 0% -39.6%
≤90d 1104 -12.1% -20.5% 51% 39% -27.1%
all 1105 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 39% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 39% -27.0%
10% -28.0% 35% -34.0%
15% -34.9% 32% -40.4%
20% -41.3% 28% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses561 / 544
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1105 / 1105
History coverage121d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1105 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 24 $1,169 −$388 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 13 $41 +$276 +668%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$9 +92%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$13 +168%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $4 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $13 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$10 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $13 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $13 +$12 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$9 +119%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$6 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$7 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$5 +64%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $59 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 14d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $146 59d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $121 63d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 8¢ $124 69d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $167 70d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 32¢ $370 71d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 15¢ $317 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 71d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3042 history records