Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcca9…4c9f
world · 236 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$47,510 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$54,668 · open −$9,693
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$112,639
Realized+$54,668
Unrealized−$9,693
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses94 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions80
Markets (closed)156 / 236
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,903
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 80 History 156 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,283
7 days+$20,146
14 days+$24,458
30 days+$24,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 68¢ 62¢ $34,529 $31,146 −$3,384 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $18,925 $18,917 −$8 (-0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 38¢ 44¢ $11,077 $12,727 +$1,650 (+15%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 61¢ 48¢ $12,980 $10,138 −$2,842 (-22%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 33¢ 28¢ $6,888 $5,966 −$922 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 26¢ $5,235 $4,688 −$547 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 26¢ $4,184 $4,105 −$78 (-2%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $3,827 $3,173 −$654 (-17%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 42¢ 58¢ $2,253 $3,125 +$871 (+39%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 42¢ $3,028 $2,581 −$448 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 40¢ 30¢ $2,800 $2,065 −$734 (-26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 72¢ $1,223 $1,454 +$230 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 50¢ $1,502 $1,389 −$113 (-8%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 43¢ $1,952 $1,350 −$602 (-31%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $960 $1,240 +$280 (+29%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 44¢ 28¢ $1,869 $1,174 −$695 (-37%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1,126 $1,098 −$27 (-2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 57¢ $1,000 $891 −$109 (-11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 55¢ 42¢ $1,100 $830 −$270 (-25%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $596 $638 +$42 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $366 $385 +$19 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 34¢ 24¢ $510 $368 −$142 (-28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $362 $321 −$41 (-11%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $216 $264 +$48 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $226 $209 −$17 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 11 $801 +$325 +40%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $720 −$40 -6%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $740 −$36 -5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 11 $5,176 +$568 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 11 $2,108 +$1,046 +50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,200 +$420 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $3,047 +$704 +23%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 09 $103 −$1 -1%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 09 $676 −$493 -73%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M Jun 08 $502 −$502 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,702 +$140 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $23,401 +$14,299 +61%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $720 −$688 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $375 −$375 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3,715 −$125 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4,695 −$170 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $127 −$127 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 07 $5,859 +$1,819 +31%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 06 $8,540 +$1,112 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2,904 +$1,313 +45%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1,322 +$576 +44%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +18%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 05 $4,076 +$567 +14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,858 +$324 +17%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $2,513 +$1,947 +78%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +43%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,170 +$303 +26%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2,000 −$812 -41%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $5,119 +$1,770 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,518 +$419 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +24%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $353 +$152 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $509 +$317 +62%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $1,693 +$132 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,205 +$542 +45%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 31 $4,910 −$779 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $10,990 −$3,635 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $5,511 −$288 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $8 +$2 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $1,900 −$1,751 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $1,180 −$1,020 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% +$35,631
other 17% +$4,679
politics 5% +$1,815
finance 2% +$3,321
sports 0% −$470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $74 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $52 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $17 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $101 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $325 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $62 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $2 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $60 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $285 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $290 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $295 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $610 19h
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $534 19h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $680 19h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $704 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $448 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $398 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $1 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $804 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $960 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $2,086 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $1,045 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $2 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $25 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $769 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $975 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $2 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $1,255 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $6 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $551 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.6% -24.5% 56% 52% +18.3%
≤30d 70 -7.0% -15.8% 64% 50% +4.8%
≤90d 155 +5.1% -4.9% 61% 50% +8.9%
all 156 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 49% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 49% +8.6%
10% -14.3% 34% -1.8%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 22% -11.3%
20% -30.2% 12% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112,639.40 · official $112,641.36 (match) · 3500 history records