Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcca3…7450 weather 911 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$721 (-5%) realized −$518 · open −$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%526W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day57.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$287
14 days+$153
30 days−$1,344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$531
crypto 11% −$141
other 1% −$102
world 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +42.9% +29.3% 66% 66% +8.9%
≤30d 401 -21.0% -28.6% 40% 33% -25.6%
≤90d 894 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 37% -13.5%
all 894 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 37% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 25% -21.8%
15% -31.0% 15% -29.3%
20% -37.8% 9% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$518
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses526 / 368
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)894 / 911
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day57.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 894 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $30 $31 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $29 $13 −$16 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 41¢ 4¢ $24 $2 −$22 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $34 +$31 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$29 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$46 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $51 +$54 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$30 +98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $30 +$28 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $31 +$39 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$32 +106%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$57 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$15 +202%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $19 +$38 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$23 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $2 +$4 +178%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $13 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$66 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $27 −$26 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $99 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $29 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$7 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$27 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $29 +$31 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $29 +$42 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $17 +$16 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $20 +$34 +169%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 +$4 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$13 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $29 +$41 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 29m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 29m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 38m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 47m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 37¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $11 50m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $11 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 0¢ $1 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 0¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $103 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $19 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.65 · official $292.65 (match) · 3500 history records