Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcca2…0cf1 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$286 (+1%) realized +$282 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%53W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$234
economics 12% +$22
finance 7% +$26
politics 7% +$3
world 6% +$10
weather 0% $0
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 54 -0.8% -10.3% 98% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -8.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$873) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×29.15 per $1 lost it wins $29.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$1,113
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses53 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage257d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $669 $673 +$4 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $440 $440 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $518 +$22 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $129 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $566 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 22 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 16 $565 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26? May 06 $75 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 20-26? May 06 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $221 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $1,077 +$4 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 03 $1,071 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $1,070 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 28 $1,067 +$2 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $1,065 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 24 $1,056 +$10 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 18 $201 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 18 $851 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $1,048 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $844 +$3 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 03 $511 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 25 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 20 $1,034 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 28 $1,032 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 25 $925 +$3 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $103 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $916 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $994 +$25 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 09 $910 +$84 +9%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 15 $873 +$37 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $873 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 01 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 30 $672 +$27 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 29 $81 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on October 20? Oct 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 21? Oct 20 $727 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? Oct 20 $751 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 18? Oct 18 $750 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17? Oct 17 $740 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on October 18? Oct 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on October 17? Oct 16 $693 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 15? Oct 16 $737 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 14? Oct 15 $736 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $270 and $280 on October 13? Oct 14 $735 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12? Oct 13 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on October 11? Oct 12 $237 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $440 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $305 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $135 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $101 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $100 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $134 13d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $130 14d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $134 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $568 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $567 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $566 27d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $565 27d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $564 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $565 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $565 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $223 52d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $518 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $48 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26? BUY No 99¢ $27 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 20-26? BUY No 99¢ $266 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $859 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $221 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $111 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $111 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 72d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,112.61 · official $1,112.61 (match) · 173 history records