trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 14? | No | 81¢ | 98¢ | $19 | $24 | +$4 (+22%) |
| Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 | Over | 78¢ | 80¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? | No | 74¢ | 72¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-3%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 70¢ | $19 | $16 | −$3 (-18%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 48¢ | $20 | $13 | −$7 (-36%) |
| Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | Yes | 75¢ | 58¢ | $4 | $3 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | Jun 13 | $20 | +$5 | +23% |
| Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 1.5 | Jun 13 | $19 | +$5 | +24% |
| SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 12? | Jun 12 | $20 | +$4 | +21% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 | Jun 12 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$2 | +39% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$6 | +29% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $19 | +$5 | +27% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $22 | +$7 | +34% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? | Jun 10 | $4 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? | Jun 09 | $5 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn | Jun 08 | $5 | +$2 | +38% |
| Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? | Jun 07 | $5 | +$1 | +21% |
| Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k | Jun 07 | $5 | +$1 | +25% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | +8.3% | -2.0% | 86% | 86% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +8.3% | -2.0% | 86% | 86% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +8.3% | -2.0% | 86% | 86% | -9.3% |
| all | 14 | +8.3% | -2.0% | 86% | 86% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.0% | 86% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -11.4% | 57% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -19.9% | 14% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -27.8% | 0% | -33.2% |