Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc9c…ba8a other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3
other 26% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 8% −$2
finance 7% $0
economics 5% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 0% -10.3%
all 30 -5.0% -14.0% 37% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage429d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $42 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $58 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $22 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $39 −$3 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Quinten Tarantino be named in Epstein files? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 08 $15 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.17ºC in April 2025? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? May 06 $17 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $43 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $19 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $17 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $7 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $20 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $20 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $16 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $16 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $22 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $22 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $42 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $36 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $31 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $5 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $36 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $4 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $34 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.14 · official $25.14 (match) · 83 history records