Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc99…9f49 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$4
other 16% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 4% +$1
finance 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 10 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 20% -10.0%
≤90d 10 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 20% -10.0%
all 44 +4.1% -5.9% 34% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 11% -9.6%
10% -14.9% 9% -18.3%
15% -23.1% 7% -26.2%
20% -30.6% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage256d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $65 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $84 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $126 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jan 31 $22 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 20 $16 $0 -2%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 20 $8 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? Oct 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 17 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $58 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $64 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $65 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $30 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $1 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $22 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $57 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $54 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $66 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $66 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $44 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $18 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $66 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.60 · official $57.60 (match) · 144 history records