Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc93…ec1e politics 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,602 (-3%) realized −$1,602 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%4W / 54L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,005per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$16
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
politics 43% −$29
world 5% −$3
economics 4% −$3
sports 3% −$1,554
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +2.7% -7.0% 14% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 58 -5.8% -14.8% 7% 3% -12.0%
all 58 -5.8% -14.8% 7% 3% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 3% -12.0%
10% -22.9% 3% -20.4%
15% -30.4% 3% -28.1%
20% -37.2% 3% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,350) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$31 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$1,602
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage79d
Avg bet$1,005
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $314 $314 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,132 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $656 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,189 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $554 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $266 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 04 $406 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,103 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $310 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $985 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $47 −$47 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 21 $25 +$23 +93%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 20 $22 +$20 +90%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $9 $0 -4%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 10 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $3,665 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,420 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,321 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,370 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,209 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,457 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,325 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $296 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $750 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $751 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $943 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $944 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $789 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $790 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $723 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $724 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $655 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $656 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $862 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $806 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $807 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $704 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $705 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $901 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $553 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $554 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $800 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $801 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $269 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $270 22d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $266 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $418 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $419 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.54 · official $313.54 (match) · 165 history records