Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc92…faf0 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$32
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$26
politics 26% −$15
sports 16% −$14
crypto 8% −$2
world 7% −$1
economics 4% −$2
finance 4% −$2
tech 2% −$4
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 68 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.9%
all 128 -0.6% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage97d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $66 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $64 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $53 +$1 +1%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $57 −$3 -4%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 06 $40 −$2 -4%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $210 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 05 $59 −$3 -6%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $52 $0 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $246 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $216 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $145 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $255 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $48 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $67 6h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $68 13h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $53 21h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $41 21h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $42 27h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 27h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 35h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 36h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $52 41h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $36 42h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $36 46h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 47h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.46 · official $54.46 (match) · 450 history records