Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc92…649d sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,583 (-25%) realized −$5,879 · open +$296
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$844per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$560est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$576
7 days−$10,382
14 days−$6,362
30 days−$6,362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6,066
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -56.2% -60.4% 15% 8% -92.0%
≤30d 25 +50.0% +35.7% 24% 20% -41.2%
≤90d 25 +50.0% +35.7% 24% 20% -41.2%
all 25 +50.0% +35.7% 24% 20% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.7% 20% -41.2%
10% +22.7% 20% -46.8%
15% ← realistic here +10.9% 20% -52.0%
20% +0.0% 20% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,164) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +165% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,628 vs −$849 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized−$5,879
Unrealized+$296
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$560
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage13d
Avg bet$844
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Sheng Tang 20¢ 44¢ $247 $543 +$296 (+120%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $395 −$386 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $194 −$190 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $217 −$212 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor Jun 11 $124 +$447 +362%
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve Jun 11 $569 −$555 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 11 $1,125 −$1,100 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Shu Matsuoka vs Naoya Honda Jun 11 $964 −$947 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Gaeul Jang vs Natsuki Yoshimoto Jun 11 $1,818 −$1,781 -98%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 11 $878 −$859 -98%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $409 +$30 +7%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $1,963 −$1,929 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,963 −$1,935 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $982 −$966 -98%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $1,454 +$3,540 +244%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dimitris Azoidis Jun 06 $713 +$1,164 +163%
ITF Focsani: Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni vs Sophie Greiner Jun 06 $1,227 +$3,571 +291%
ITF Szentendre: Vladyslav Orlov vs Peter Makk Jun 06 $667 −$651 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lidia Encheva vs Natalija Senic Jun 06 $99 −$97 -98%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Lorenzo Bocchi vs Daniil Sarksian Jun 06 $1,184 −$1,164 -98%
ITF Luan: Hanyi Liu vs Yaojie Zeng Jun 06 $619 −$607 -98%
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama Jun 06 $1,342 −$1,315 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $478 −$472 -99%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 05 $513 +$1,017 +198%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $820 −$805 -98%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $980 −$161 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul BUY Sheng Tang 21¢ $49 17m
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul BUY Sheng Tang 19¢ $51 23m
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul BUY Sheng Tang 19¢ $51 23m
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul BUY Sheng Tang 19¢ $51 24m
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul BUY Sheng Tang 21¢ $51 24m
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 19¢ $88 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 24¢ $102 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 24¢ $51 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 25¢ $51 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 36¢ $51 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 32¢ $51 1h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Ye Chen 34¢ $41 1h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Ye Chen 29¢ $51 1h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Ye Chen 29¢ $51 1h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Ye Chen 28¢ $51 1h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 12¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 14¢ $11 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 17¢ $205 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 14¢ $5 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 12¢ $51 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 12¢ $51 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 16¢ $51 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 13¢ $103 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 13¢ $103 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 11¢ $51 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 11¢ $51 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 15¢ $51 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve BUY Marcel Latak 14¢ $51 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor SELL Lily Taylor 99¢ $570 5d
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor BUY Lily Taylor 23¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.01 · official $499.32 · 375 history records