Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc91…bc78 crypto 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1786 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$294 (+3%) realized +$299 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate41%118W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1786.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1786 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 +2.4% -7.4% 41% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 285 +2.4% -7.4% 41% 11% -10.0%
≤90d 285 +2.4% -7.4% 41% 11% -10.0%
all 285 +2.4% -7.4% 41% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1786.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 11% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 6% -18.6%
15% -24.3% 4% -26.5%
20% -31.7% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses118 / 167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1786.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 56¢ 98¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 41¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $87 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $91 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $91 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $91 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.21 · official $12.20 (match) · 2097 history records