Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc91…1a88 crypto 989 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 221d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$360 (+0%) realized +$366 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%522W / 463L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 221d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$5,966
other 18% +$3,759
sports 4% −$520
world 1% +$87
finance 1% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 42% -3.7%
≤30d 267 -19.7% -27.4% 50% 41% -24.7%
≤90d 959 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 47% -12.3%
all 985 -6.9% -15.8% 53% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 47% -11.6%
10% -23.8% 37% -20.0%
15% -31.2% 26% -27.8%
20% -37.9% 16% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$50 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$366
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses522 / 463
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)985 / 989
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 985 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 77¢ 75¢ $154 $151 −$3 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 56¢ 52¢ $56 $52 −$4 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +25%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $167 −$5 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $57 +$8 +15%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$40 +39%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $158 +$17 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $130 −$84 -65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $26 −$2 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $29 +$31 +109%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$4 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 −$5 -16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $33 +$1 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $246 +$21 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +56%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $758 −$375 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $99 −$85 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $112 −$77 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$3 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $121 +$14 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 77¢ $155 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 56¢ $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 14¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $32 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 17h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $75 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 65¢ $65 26h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 55¢ $57 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $37 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $35 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $68 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $143 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $73 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.38 · official $278.50 · 3486 history records