Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc8d…0939 crypto 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 213d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,136 (-2%) realized −$1,134 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate63%363W / 216L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$858
7 days−$858
14 days−$889
30 days−$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$277
other 6% +$200
weather 3% −$157
sports 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -16.6% -24.5% 24% 18% -31.9%
≤30d 103 -16.1% -24.1% 38% 20% -27.8%
≤90d 164 -17.3% -25.2% 40% 22% -27.2%
all 579 -7.3% -16.2% 63% 24% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 24% -11.0%
10% -24.2% 17% -19.5%
15% -31.5% 12% -27.3%
20% -38.2% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$2,313
Realized−$1,134
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses363 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)579 / 564
History coverage213d ⚠
Avg bet$117
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,555 $1,558 +$2 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $759 $755 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$8 +1367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $346 −$346 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $376 −$376 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$35 -132%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$35 +136%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $58 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $34 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,456 +$401 +28%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $123 −$64 -52%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$65 -64%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $40 −$16 -40%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $37 −$19 -52%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $309 +$39 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$10 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$8 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$7 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$11 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$9 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$6 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$17 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 96¢ $90 54m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 96¢ $270 55m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $138 57m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $179 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $277 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $695 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $252 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $100 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 90¢ $22 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $60 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $62 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 59¢ $15 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 95¢ $34 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? SELL No 92¢ $32 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 78¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 75¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,312.81 · official $2,312.01 (match) · 3500 history records