Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc8c…116d sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-30%) realized −$236 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -59.2% -63.1% 12% 12% -62.4%
≤30d 8 -59.2% -63.1% 12% 12% -62.4%
≤90d 8 -59.2% -63.1% 12% 12% -62.4%
all 8 -59.2% -63.1% 12% 12% -62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.1% 12% -62.4%
10% -66.6% 12% -66.0%
15% -69.8% 12% -69.3%
20% -72.8% 12% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$65 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $66 +$150 +226%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $66 −$65 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $66 −$65 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $66 −$65 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $66 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $66 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $66 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $66 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $66 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $66 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $66 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $66 2d
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.89 · official $254.89 (match) · 13 history records