Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc8a…7d9c other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$239 (+2%) realized +$172 · open +$67
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$1,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$18
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$29
other 32% +$118
politics 26% +$84
tech 10% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 45% -13.1%
≤30d 19 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 26% -10.1%
≤90d 23 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 22% -8.1%
all 35 -3.9% -13.1% 66% 17% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 17% -8.0%
10% -21.4% 6% -16.8%
15% -29.0% 3% -24.8%
20% -35.9% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$1,209
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)35 / 61
History coverage322d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $214 $217 +$3 (+1%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $103 $120 +$18 (+17%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 97¢ $95 $101 +$6 (+6%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 96¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 90¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+15%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 94¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-4%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 82¢ $27 $36 +$9 (+33%)
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 97¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 93¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Will Haissem Hassan score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 90¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+53%)
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 88¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ibrahima Konaté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 91¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 90¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+20%)
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 90¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $37 +$6 +15%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $60 −$2 -4%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $37 −$26 -71%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $75 +$10 +14%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $35 −$1 -2%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 13 $75 +$6 +8%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 10 $501 +$14 +3%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 07 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 07 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 07 $45 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 05 $75 +$6 +8%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $202 +$3 +1%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 24 $200 −$8 -4%
Will Trump resign before 2027? May 21 $271 +$4 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 04 $1,213 +$56 +5%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 26 $1,192 +$22 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Mar 07 $955 +$9 +1%
Celonis IPO before 2027? Feb 19 $30 −$15 -51%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $40 +$5 +12%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 02 $64 −$50 -79%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Feb 02 $41 +$2 +4%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $158 +$8 +5%
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jan 22 $100 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jan 20 $390 +$6 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 12 $150 +$8 +5%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 09 $1,132 +$85 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $23 0m
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 93¢ $37 4m
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 1h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $149 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $33 2h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 92¢ $23 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 92¢ $58 2h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 95¢ $36 2h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 93¢ $3 2h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 93¢ $47 2h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 93¢ $37 2h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 93¢ $19 2h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 19¢ $11 2h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 71¢ $13 12h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 19¢ $13 13h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 62¢ $16 13h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 63¢ $20 13h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 15¢ $10 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 48¢ $30 14h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 91¢ $42 40h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $40 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 70¢ $35 4d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 96¢ $76 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,209.05 · official $1,209.02 (match) · 139 history records