trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -12.5% | -20.8% | 0% | 0% | -13.3% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 50% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 50% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 24 | -7.9% | -16.7% | 38% | 4% | -13.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.7% | 4% | -13.1% |
| 10% | -24.6% | 4% | -21.4% |
| 15% | -31.9% | 0% | -29.0% |
| 20% | -38.6% | 0% | -36.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 20 | $6 | −$1 | -25% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 02 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 01 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 31 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 31 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 30 | $27 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 30 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $29 | −$3 | -10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 27 | $14 | −$1 | -8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 05 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 25 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Apr 24 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' | Apr 02 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 30 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 29 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 29 | $3 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? | Mar 26 | $1 | −$1 | -70% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 26 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |