Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc88…a949 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$629 (-1%) realized −$618 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%35W / 55L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$851
7 days+$695
14 days+$695
30 days+$695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$326
other 40% +$25
weather 4% −$919
sports 4% −$134
tech 1% −$35
economics 1% −$134
finance 0% −$123
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.5% -18.1% 32% 26% +26.1%
≤30d 19 -9.5% -18.1% 32% 26% +26.1%
≤90d 19 -9.5% -18.1% 32% 26% +26.1%
all 90 -14.9% -23.0% 39% 29% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 29% -11.2%
10% -30.4% 21% -19.7%
15% -37.1% 18% -27.5%
20% -43.3% 12% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -26% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$116 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$618
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)90 / 102
History coverage242d
Avg bet$523
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $174 +$16 +10%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$3 -15%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 +$578 +57%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $54 +$43 +79%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 24 $58 +$145 +250%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 +$113 +550%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $3,095 −$2,483 -80%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 18 $2,923 +$34 +1%
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $130 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on No Nov 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Nov 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November Nov 15 $578 −$578 -100%
Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $2,272 +$227 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November Nov 14 $191 +$40 +21%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 14 $152 +$36 +24%
Will Owen Cooper be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Nov 14 $4 +$21 +508%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on No Nov 14 $70 +$21 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November Nov 13 $216 −$216 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $529 −$506 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on No Nov 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on No Nov 12 $128 +$56 +44%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Nov 12 $9 +$6 +72%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November Nov 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on No Nov 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 11 $913 −$3 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November Nov 11 $84 +$96 +114%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on Nove Nov 11 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 11 $255 −$255 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Nov 10 $114 +$81 +71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on Nov Nov 10 $142 +$58 +41%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Nov 09 $111 −$8 -7%
Chelsea vs. Wolves: O/U 2.5 Nov 08 $111 +$67 +60%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $28 +$20 +72%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $50 +$23 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on No Nov 07 $5 −$3 -50%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on No Nov 05 $47 −$11 -23%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,852 +$146 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $79 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $120 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan BUY 36¢ $140 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 4¢ $4 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $115 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $4 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $58 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $658 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $353 26h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 32h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $54 32h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Tota BUY 34¢ $84 32h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: England (-2.5) BUY 38¢ $49 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea BUY 28¢ $58 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 6d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 6d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 6d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.18 · official $462.55 · 360 history records