Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc88…799a other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 22% −$75
other 5% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 42 -4.4% -13.5% 26% 14% -9.5%
all 61 -3.6% -12.8% 25% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 10% -9.9%
10% -21.1% 10% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 10% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage577d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $39 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $85 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $9 +$4 +48%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 02 $31 −$31 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 +$1 +4%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 02 $23 +$18 +79%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Mar 30 $16 +$16 +103%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 27 $21 +$11 +52%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 27 $51 $0 +1%
Zadar: Jonas Forejtek vs Andrej Nedic Mar 23 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 13 $95 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,662 −$14 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $138 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Oct 27 $76 −$11 -14%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $528 −$12 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 5h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 22d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 28d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 28d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $16 28d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 29d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 30d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.46 · official $72.46 (match) · 280 history records