Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc88…1bfc other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,332 (+1%) realized +$1,330 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate32%40W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$789per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$49
other 36% −$446
sports 15% +$1,799
world 4% +$8
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -12.5% -20.8% 9% 2% -9.8%
all 125 +2.2% -7.5% 32% 11% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -8.3%
10% -16.4% 11% -17.1%
15% -24.5% 10% -25.1%
20% -31.9% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,099) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$10 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$1,330
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses40 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage148d
Avg bet$789
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $654 $656 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,124 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $318 +$2 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $714 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,804 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,975 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $689 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $466 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $510 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $709 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $3,474 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $218 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 01 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $2,658 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,917 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,751 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,252 −$3 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $2,194 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,257 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 06 $50 $0 +0%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 131.5 Mar 27 $629 +$599 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $215 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 2h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 45h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 47h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $376 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $377 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $654 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $713 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $714 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $775 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $776 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $759 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $760 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $735 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $736 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $758 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $833 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $834 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $762 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $763 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $689 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $689 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $809 16d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $810 17d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $751 17d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $752 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $879 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $880 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $699 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.90 · official $655.90 (match) · 391 history records