Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc84…4871 crypto 531 markets active 0h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$741 (-5%) realized −$733 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%223W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$110
14 days−$61
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$105
sports 29% −$663
other 26% −$105
weather 1% −$1
politics 0% +$96
world 0% −$18
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -37.9% -43.8% 24% 22% -37.1%
≤30d 89 -12.9% -21.2% 37% 36% -17.1%
≤90d 187 -21.8% -29.2% 36% 30% -19.2%
all 524 -15.6% -23.7% 43% 30% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 30% -14.2%
10% -31.0% 26% -22.4%
15% -37.6% 23% -29.9%
20% -43.7% 20% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$733
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses223 / 301
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)524 / 531
History coverage187d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$20 -80%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $15 +$29 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $3 +$10 +325%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 13 $16 −$6 -35%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 13 $6 +$6 +94%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $2 +$6 +270%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$8 +400%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 15m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 26m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $4 40m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 41m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 7¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 12¢ $2 3h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 26¢ $2 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 4¢ $2 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 12¢ $3 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 34¢ $15 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AN BUY 19¢ $3 25h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 16¢ $5 26h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 23¢ $3 27h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 3¢ $1 28h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 5¢ $2 28h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 20¢ $5 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $3 38h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 39h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $2 39h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 44h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 4¢ $1 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 40¢ $8 2d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 26¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.35 · official $5.35 (match) · 1373 history records