Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc83…215c sports 562 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$625 (-2%) realized −$627 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%275W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days+$45
14 days−$51
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$316
other 28% −$697
world 19% +$337
finance 5% −$104
crypto 1% +$28
politics 1% −$38
culture 0% +$96
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 52% -6.7%
≤30d 61 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 46% -6.6%
≤90d 259 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 44% -13.4%
all 557 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 45% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -11.1%
10% -21.6% 38% -19.7%
15% -29.2% 31% -27.4%
20% -36.1% 24% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses275 / 282
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions5
Markets (closed)557 / 562
History coverage140d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$47 -59%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$56 -56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$47 -93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $30 +$18 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $40 +$22 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$5 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$12 -12%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$3 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$8 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 08 $21 −$7 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $40 +$17 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $60 −$2 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 +$5 +101%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $10 +$5 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $20 +$3 +14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $181 +$93 +52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$30 -59%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $20 +$16 +79%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $20 +$26 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $30 −$4 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 63¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 34¢ $45 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $4 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 41h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 93¢ $104 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 89¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.37 · official $142.37 (match) · 1577 history records