Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcc7c…4ce2
other · 956 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$3,929 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,665 · open −$923
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$192
Realized+$3,665
Unrealized−$923
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses611 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions15
Markets (closed)939 / 956
History coverage202d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 15 History 939 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$299
14 days+$762
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ilia Topuria be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 80¢ 81¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 79¢ 96¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 52¢ 32¢ $41 $25 −$16 (-40%)
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? No 72¢ 83¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 50¢ 0¢ $900 $1 −$899 (-100%)
Will Bad Bunny be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -31%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -5%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$6 -13%
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? Jun 14 $30 +$14 +48%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 14 $71 −$13 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$4 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 14 $81 −$40 -49%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 14 $92 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $81 +$14 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $150 +$8 +6%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $120 +$58 +48%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $91 +$18 +20%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 14 $104 +$65 +63%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $70 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $301 +$25 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$4 -21%
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Vitaliy Sachko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $93 +$7 +8%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $62 +$18 +30%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $69 +$36 +52%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $242 +$24 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $80 +$14 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0 Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $24 +$17 +68%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $501 +$13 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $177 +$65 +37%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $105 +$9 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $60 +$11 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $81 +$18 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$11 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% +$185
other 28% +$530
sports 22% +$2,001
politics 11% −$252
crypto 3% +$225
finance 3% +$53
tech 2% −$250
weather 2% −$58
culture 1% −$18
economics 1% +$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $913 2h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 14¢ $25 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $24 2h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 2h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $44 2h
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $44 2h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $45 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $46 2h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? SELL No 85¢ $48 2h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $41 2h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $97 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $95 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $119 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 84¢ $178 2h
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this SELL No 98¢ $5 3h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 98¢ $31 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $55 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $109 3h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $126 3h
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb SELL Yes 99¢ $56 3h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 3h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 17¢ $30 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 71¢ $202 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $326 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $301 14h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 16h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will BUY 67¢ $50 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +5.4% -4.6% 68% 46% -4.7%
≤30d 206 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 37% -8.5%
≤90d 541 +1.2% -8.4% 63% 38% -11.1%
all 939 +0.7% -8.9% 65% 37% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 37% -7.9%
10% -17.6% 22% -16.7%
15% -25.6% 16% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.25 · official $192.25 (match) · 2864 history records