Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcc7b…57cb
other · 52 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$7 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses28 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage460d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $7 $0 +5%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 08 $5 $0 -3%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $1 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $5 $0 +11%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's May 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $15 $0 -2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 13 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% +$2
other 28% +$5
politics 20% $0
sports 7% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $25 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $7 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $31 32h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $23 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $31 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $13 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $12 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $31 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $30 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 59¢ $31 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 59¢ $1 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $30 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $7 349d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 98¢ $5 350d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 96¢ $5 387d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 7 +2.1% -7.6% 71% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 7 +2.1% -7.6% 71% 0% -7.5%
all 51 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -8.5%
10% -18.6% 2% -17.3%
15% -26.4% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.7% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records