Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc75…265e sports 109 markets active 1d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$12 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%62W / 43L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$8
crypto 31% +$2
other 8% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 58% -22.5%
≤30d 99 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 63% +1.6%
≤90d 105 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 59% -5.0%
all 105 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 59% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 59% -5.0%
10% -18.0% 56% -14.1%
15% -25.9% 50% -22.4%
20% -33.2% 38% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses62 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 109
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 55¢ 5¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +113%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +75%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $1 $0 +43%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +33%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +96%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +104%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $2 40h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 46¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 60¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 22¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 100¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 73¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.87 · official $7.87 (match) · 216 history records