Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc74…4035 finance 127 markets active 12h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$819 (-3%) realized −$819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%60W / 65L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$233
14 days−$239
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 78% −$1,089
other 13% +$150
crypto 7% −$487
tech 2% +$168
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -26.8% -33.7% 33% 33% -42.1%
≤30d 34 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 56% -9.9%
≤90d 107 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 42% -13.3%
all 125 -14.6% -22.7% 48% 42% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 42% -13.6%
10% -30.1% 30% -21.9%
15% -36.9% 20% -29.4%
20% -43.1% 10% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$72 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage105d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $143 −$40 -28%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 21 $61 −$31 -50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $59 +$16 +27%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $53 +$27 +52%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $325 −$200 -61%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $109 +$32 +29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $161 +$34 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$26 +43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $353 −$129 -37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $72 +$18 +25%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $81 +$19 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $236 −$106 -45%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $187 +$73 +39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $148 +$38 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $171 +$88 +52%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $85 −$74 -87%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $52 −$38 -73%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $129 +$22 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,164 −$155 -13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $202 +$88 +43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $160 +$91 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +92%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $377 +$144 +38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $258 +$1 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $80 −$20 -25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $259 +$76 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 19 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 19 $4 +$3 +73%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $23 −$20 -84%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $20 +$3 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $313 −$179 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $12 −$12 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $26 −$15 -55%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $97 −$14 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $158 −$90 -57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $194 −$103 -53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $203 −$26 -13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $419 −$86 -20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $69 +$34 +50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $245 −$56 -23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $395 +$61 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 25¢ $18 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 26¢ $11 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 27¢ $3 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 34¢ $1 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 48¢ $64 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 52¢ $31 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 67¢ $29 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 69¢ $30 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 54¢ $11 13h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 17¢ $7 29h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 18¢ $12 29h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 19¢ $2 29h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 20¢ $4 29h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 22¢ $3 29h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 22¢ $2 29h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 35¢ $45 47h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 34¢ $7 47h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 33¢ $9 47h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $7 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 62¢ $3 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 66¢ $53 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 78¢ $59 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 855 history records