Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc73…9cb8 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$1
politics 23% +$2
other 20% −$1
sports 16% −$8
economics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 25 +78.2% +61.2% 28% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 34 +57.5% +42.5% 29% 3% -9.4%
all 41 +45.0% +31.2% 32% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.2% 10% -9.8%
10% +18.7% 7% -18.4%
15% +7.2% 7% -26.3%
20% -3.3% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage526d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 84¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $38 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $155 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -46%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $35 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $73 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $34 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $214 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $443 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $222 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $220 +$4 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $219 $0 +0%
Cornell vs. Harvard Feb 14 $12 −$11 -92%
Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Feb 06 $3 +$2 +92%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 22 $1 +$1 +56%
Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 21 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $1 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $5 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $2 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $16 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $10 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $25 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records