Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc72…2888 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,076 (-17%) realized −$4,045 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate48%35W / 38L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,435
7 days−$4,177
14 days−$4,189
30 days−$4,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$3,901
other 30% −$217
world 17% −$82
crypto 1% +$46
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -39.7% -45.5% 53% 21% -28.5%
≤30d 68 -41.2% -46.8% 49% 21% -28.4%
≤90d 70 -42.9% -48.3% 47% 20% -28.5%
all 73 -36.8% -42.8% 48% 22% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 22% -28.1%
10% -48.3% 15% -35.0%
15% -53.3% 10% -41.2%
20% -57.9% 7% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$164 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$3,453
Realized−$4,045
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses35 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions26
Markets (closed)73 / 99
History coverage124d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,277 $1,276 −$1 (-0%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $1,281 $1,271 −$10 (-1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $171 $168 −$3 (-2%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $130 $113 −$17 (-13%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $112 $110 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Argentina 21¢ 24¢ $85 $101 +$15 (+18%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $97 $90 −$7 (-7%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $70 $69 −$2 (-2%)
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $56 $52 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? No 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 64¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 52¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Argentina 10¢ 12¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 65¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Over 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Argentina? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Argentina 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Under 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Argentina? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $613 +$404 +66%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 27 $59 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2,859 +$104 +4%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $821 +$41 +5%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $155 +$15 +10%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $1,139 +$42 +4%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $167 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $169 +$1 +0%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $482 +$96 +20%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $233 −$227 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,711 +$835 +49%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,421 +$81 +6%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $73 −$71 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $480 +$17 +4%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $156 +$78 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $38 +$10 +27%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $23 −$22 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $491 −$481 -98%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $86 −$84 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $87 −$85 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$2 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $18 −$17 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $697 −$692 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $283 +$8 +3%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $79 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $414 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $499 +$31 +6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $240 +$57 +24%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,164 −$1,149 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $1,146 −$1,127 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $14 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $128 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $46 +$25 +55%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $255 −$248 -97%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $40 +$4 +11%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $127 +$29 +23%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $39 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $57 7m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $157 18m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $4 19m
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY No 99¢ $464 38m
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY No 99¢ $814 39m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 42m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY No 97¢ $39 52m
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $1 52m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 56m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $949 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $37 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $14 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $12 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $295 2h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $72 4h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Argentina? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $58 6h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $3 9h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $9 9h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Argentina? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $28 10h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $19 10h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $65 11h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 10¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,453.21 · official $3,453.54 (match) · 331 history records