Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xcc6c…0573 politics 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-6%) realized −$87 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$33
14 days+$40
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$35
other 6% −$41
sports 4% +$4
world 1% +$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.7% -47.2% 50% 50% +5.1%
≤30d 8 -19.3% -27.0% 62% 50% +3.3%
≤90d 43 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 33% -7.5%
all 65 -37.1% -43.0% 34% 25% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 25% -13.0%
10% -48.5% 23% -21.3%
15% -53.5% 20% -28.9%
20% -58.0% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 70
History coverage148d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $35 $22 −$13 (-37%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 25 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Tigres UANL win Liga MX? May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region May 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? May 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will St. Pauli be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 seas May 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 10 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 29 $1 $0 -33%
Will Strasbourg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgaria Apr 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 19 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? Apr 08 $100 +$3 +3%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1 +$3 +335%
Will Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 +$4 +75%
Will People's Party win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faro Mar 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 26 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 25 $201 +$2 +1%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Mar 22 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 22 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general el Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY Yes 94¢ $301 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $235 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $201 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 72¢ $37 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 16d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i BUY Yes 96¢ $200 28d
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el BUY Yes 75¢ $20 34d
Will Tigres UANL win Liga MX? SELL Yes $0 34d
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region SELL Yes 51¢ $7 35d
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? SELL Yes $0 36d
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15? BUY Yes $1 42d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 42d
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th SELL Yes 99¢ $18 42d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 42d
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region BUY Yes 69¢ $10 42d
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the e BUY Yes $5 42d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 45d
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th BUY Yes 56¢ $10 46d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 59¢ $25 47d
Will Tigres UANL win Liga MX? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 48d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 48d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes $0 48d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most SELL Yes $1 53d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 13¢ $1 59d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.39 · official $324.39 (match) · 145 history records