Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xcc6b…8115 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,264 (-11%) realized −$1,071 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%13W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days+$997
14 days+$697
30 days+$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1,178
sports 25% +$74
other 16% +$145
politics 7% −$97
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +8.0% -2.3% 20% 20% +19.1%
≤30d 66 -3.4% -12.6% 18% 18% +3.7%
≤90d 76 -13.9% -22.1% 17% 17% -11.3%
all 82 -19.4% -27.1% 16% 16% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 16% -17.5%
10% -34.1% 16% -25.4%
15% -40.4% 16% -32.6%
20% -46.3% 16% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$90 · ×4.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$809
Realized−$1,071
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses13 / 69
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions8
Markets (closed)82 / 90
History coverage224d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $404 $294 −$110 (-27%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 38¢ $100 $160 +$60 (+60%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $220 $145 −$75 (-34%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 16¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $78 $35 −$43 (-56%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $100 −$97 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $99 −$96 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $73 −$71 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $132 +$166 +126%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$99 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $82 +$135 +165%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$1,141 +1110%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$221 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $68 −$66 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 +$119 +388%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$204 +199%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$119 +388%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $68 +$189 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $69 +$383 +557%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 17h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $99 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $73 19h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $31 28h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 40h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 26¢ $63 40h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 40h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 29¢ $63 40h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $68 40h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $99 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $72 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $41 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $808.80 · official $808.80 (match) · 291 history records