Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc60…777f other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$386 (-3%) realized −$476 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%48W / 36L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$233
world 16% +$87
culture 10% −$396
crypto 7% −$415
politics 5% −$16
economics 5% +$17
tech 4% +$57
sports 1% +$44
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 2 +24.2% +12.4% 100% 50% -5.8%
≤90d 8 +20.1% +8.6% 75% 62% -4.2%
all 84 -9.0% -17.7% 57% 29% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 29% -13.0%
10% -25.6% 25% -21.3%
15% -32.8% 14% -28.9%
20% -39.4% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$33 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$1,549
Realized−$476
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses48 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)84 / 91
History coverage254d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,076 +$76 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $166 $185 +$19 (+11%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 78¢ $168 $155 −$13 (-8%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 68¢ 88¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+30%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 31¢ 40¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 31¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 19 $486 +$16 +3%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 −$17 -82%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? May 14 $4 +$6 +170%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? May 14 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? May 14 $84 +$20 +23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31? Jan 01 $73 +$26 +36%
'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store? Jan 01 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jan 01 $488 +$9 +2%
North Korea missile launch by December 31? Jan 01 $1 +$4 +354%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Jan 01 $3 +$7 +260%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Jan 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Jan 01 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $129 +$5 +4%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $248 +$42 +17%
Will Jensen Huang be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 20 $500 +$12 +2%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Dec 19 $584 −$425 -73%
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the Dec 15 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Rory McIlroy be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year Dec 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 63-64°F on December Dec 12 $0 $0 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Panick in the White House Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AI be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Pope Leo XIV be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 11 $75 +$9 +12%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? Dec 11 $32 +$16 +48%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $4 +$6 +173%
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Time announce Person of the Year on December 11? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Altman be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 10 $12 $0 +2%
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? Dec 10 $30 −$22 -73%
Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this y Dec 10 $164 +$44 +27%
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 10 $500 +$14 +3%
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 10 $2,019 +$198 +10%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Dec 04 $482 −$479 -99%
Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 Dec 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Dec 02 $584 +$75 +13%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 02 $741 +$4 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 Dec 02 $955 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $502 1h
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 12¢ $2 35d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 12¢ $4 35d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 68¢ $20 35d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 50¢ $10 35d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 61¢ $20 35d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $400 35d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 31¢ $10 35d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $100 35d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 35d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi BUY No 66¢ $26 169d
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $99 169d
'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store? SELL No 100¢ $5 169d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? SELL No 97¢ $497 169d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $86 172d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? BUY No 95¢ $380 176d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? BUY ETH 35¢ $20 182d
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C BUY No 27¢ $1 184d
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 184d
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 184d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? BUY ETH 40¢ $40 185d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? BUY ETH 43¢ $43 186d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? BUY ETH 43¢ $13 186d
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the SELL No 98¢ $3 186d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? BUY No 97¢ $97 186d
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 186d
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 186d
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 187d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? BUY No 99¢ $1 187d
North Korea missile launch by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,548.55 · official $1,548.55 (match) · 489 history records