Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc5e…7761 crypto 1565 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$242 (-1%) realized −$245 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%1477W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day166.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$190
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$55
other 14% −$131
sports 3% −$109
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$5
politics 1% −$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 1% -7.5%
≤30d 1561 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 1561 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 0% -10.1%
all 1561 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 0% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1477 / 84
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1561 / 1565
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day166.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 62¢ 98¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $54 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $22 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $27 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $211 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $22 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $22 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $17 −$3 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $74 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $54 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $54 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $175 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $19 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.81 · official $107.66 (match) · 3500 history records