Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcc5b…1edc
sports · 67 markets active 1d ago
6.0score
+$249,946 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$249,946 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$249,946
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$8,554
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
Avg bet$9,733
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136,130
7 days+$222,568
14 days+$406,334
30 days+$315,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $410 $0 −$410 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ 0¢ $42,358 $0 −$42,358 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 27¢ 0¢ $25,000 $0 −$25,000 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks 76ers 30¢ 0¢ $18,000 $0 −$18,000 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 42¢ 0¢ $48,914 $0 −$48,914 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Hawks 48¢ 0¢ $8,493 $0 −$8,493 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $83,542 +$136,130 +163%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $43,864 +$86,439 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $111,632 +$184,175 +165%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $426 −$410 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $43,108 −$42,358 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $49,765 −$48,914 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $9,736 +$40,240 +413%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $10,177 +$14,250 +140%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $6,097 +$18,740 +307%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $18,378 −$18,000 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $25,547 −$25,000 -98%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines May 03 $12,219 −$12,219 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Apr 17 $2,000 −$1,891 -94%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 08 $8,628 −$8,493 -98%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $8,000 +$2,308 +29%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $19,000 −$19,000 -100%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $5,615 +$3,329 +59%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $9,000 +$10,600 +118%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 30 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 30 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference? Mar 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 100 and 110 seconds? Mar 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conferenc Mar 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 23 $1,928 −$1,928 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9? Mar 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Mar 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 23 $5,000 −$4,852 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? Mar 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 23 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 23 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Mar 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 23 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Mar 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Mar 23 $4,870 −$4,870 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 23 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Mar 23 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Mar 23 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? Mar 23 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 23 $20,000 −$20,000 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 23 $6,000 +$5,936 +99%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 23 $2,000 +$6,993 +350%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 23 $6,000 +$3,628 +60%
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference? Mar 18 $1,000 +$898 +90%
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $1,000 +$1,302 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 17 $2,029 +$2,739 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 17 $2,000 +$2,763 +138%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $4,000 +$1,634 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$300,851
economics 4% +$5,224
crypto 3% −$12,398
tech 3% −$16,127
politics 3% −$11,975
other 2% −$6,878
finance 2% −$8,751
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $83,542 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $43,864 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $295,808 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $426 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $111,632 8d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $43,108 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $49,765 16d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $49,976 33d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Joshua Van 100¢ $24,427 33d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $9,736 33d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 41¢ $10,177 33d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 24¢ $6,097 38d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 30¢ $18,378 38d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 27¢ $25,547 39d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? SELL Yes 1¢ $109 55d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers BUY Hawks 48¢ $8,628 64d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Connecticut Huskies 17¢ $2,219 66d
76ers vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 100¢ $10,308 66d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Connecticut Huskies 36¢ $10,000 66d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $8,000 66d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Arizona Wildcats 31¢ $10,000 68d
Pistons vs. 76ers SELL Pistons 100¢ $8,944 68d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini SELL Connecticut Huskies 100¢ $19,600 68d
Pistons vs. 76ers BUY Pistons 62¢ $5,615 68d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Arizona Wildcats 48¢ $9,000 72d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini BUY Connecticut Huskies 45¢ $9,000 72d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Duke Blue Devils 68¢ $3,000 74d
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide SELL Alabama Crimson Tide 100¢ $11,936 81d
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators SELL Iowa Hawkeyes 100¢ $8,993 81d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers BUY Virginia Cavaliers 34¢ $1,000 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +180.0% +153.3% 100% 100% +148.5%
≤30d 6 +37.5% +24.4% 50% 50% +76.7%
≤90d 49 -14.2% -22.4% 33% 33% +33.3%
all 67 -11.3% -19.8% 39% 36% +25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 36% +25.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 36% +13.3%
15% -34.5% 33% +2.4%
20% -40.9% 30% -7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records