Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc59…fce1 other 101 markets active 1d ago coverage 606d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,955 (+5%) realized +$1,955 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%39W / 62L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 606d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4,765
world 12% +$441
politics 11% +$1,757
crypto 9% +$524
tech 2% +$272
sports 2% +$525
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.1% +12.3% 58% 58% -11.8%
≤30d 14 +28.0% +15.8% 64% 64% +5.2%
≤90d 53 -46.4% -51.5% 34% 19% -20.6%
all 101 -10.2% -18.8% 39% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 29% -12.4%
10% -26.5% 25% -20.8%
15% -33.6% 21% -28.5%
20% -40.1% 19% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$131 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,955
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses39 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage606d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$77 +216%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$202 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $253 +$148 +59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $340 −$253 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $485 −$188 -39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $251 +$43 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $506 +$229 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $253 +$201 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $15 +$11 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $3,662 +$1,152 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $2,635 −$558 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $1,500 +$191 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $2,623 +$3 +0%
Big Game: Coin Toss Apr 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $532 +$22 +4%
Will JD Vance's fundraiser not air? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual G Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1,000 −$999 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $372 −$312 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $3,085 +$215 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $4,044 +$49 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $518 +$26 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech? Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Super Bowl LX have between 128M and 132M viewers? Mar 22 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 29 Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Right Now" during the fundraiser? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? Mar 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $81 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $124 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $87 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 51¢ $297 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $253 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 85¢ $251 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 68¢ $506 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $340 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 83¢ $485 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 58¢ $15 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $4,814 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $3,662 18d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2,067 63d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 63d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,635 64d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 64d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,623 65d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,500 65d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 65d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 65d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $84 65d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 66d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $372 67d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 617 history records