Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc58…1dff crypto 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2,609 (-5%) realized +$226 · open −$2,835
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%95W / 117L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$867
7 days+$4,590
14 days+$4,590
30 days−$3,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$1,738
crypto 23% −$485
sports 23% +$6,844
politics 18% −$8,675
other 2% −$66
tech 1% +$60
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.4% -30.7% 43% 43% +13.8%
≤30d 118 -69.3% -72.2% 17% 14% -17.2%
≤90d 118 -69.3% -72.2% 17% 14% -17.2%
all 212 -5.9% -14.9% 45% 43% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 43% -12.3%
10% -23.0% 40% -20.7%
15% -30.5% 37% -28.3%
20% -37.3% 33% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +68% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$131 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$1,896
Realized+$226
Unrealized−$2,835
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses95 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions4
Markets (closed)212 / 216
History coverage223d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 54¢ 52¢ $1,363 $1,292 −$71 (-5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 60¢ 6¢ $3,019 $277 −$2,741 (-91%)
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Martha Matoula 51¢ 34¢ $250 $164 −$86 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 48¢ 78¢ $100 $162 +$63 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $753 −$751 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $439 −$425 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $1,137 +$977 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$156 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $132 −$125 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9,000 +$1,067 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $155 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $200 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $468 +$569 +122%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4,618 +$3,874 +84%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $332 +$532 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $129 +$60 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 05 $103 +$93 +90%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andres Martin Jun 04 $28 −$27 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $458 −$450 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during the McDonald's Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Latvia win on 2025-11-16? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Rockets Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Penguins Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Bills Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during t Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2025-11-09? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Warriors vs. Heat Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $96 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $63 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 13m
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 51¢ $254 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,896.21 · official $1,891.00 (match) · 717 history records