Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc56…db65 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 29% +$1
sports 7% +$2
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 6 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 48 -1.8% -11.1% 46% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -9.0%
10% -19.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage466d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $74 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -29%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $7 $0 -2%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 04 $1 $0 -26%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $4 $0 -1%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alex Albon win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $17 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 11 $10 $0 -5%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $14 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 09 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $41 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $33 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $42 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $12 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 18d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $0 18d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 18d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 18d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 20d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 90¢ $2 337d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL Yes $0 356d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL Yes $0 356d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL Yes $0 356d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL Yes $0 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.60 · official $40.50 (match) · 173 history records