Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc54…ec24 other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 149L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$27
14 days−$41
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$26
other 24% −$27
sports 17% −$24
crypto 9% −$8
economics 4% −$3
world 4% $0
finance 3% −$14
culture 3% −$3
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.5% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 70 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 157 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 171 -0.7% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage105d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $143 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 22 $96 −$4 -4%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 20 $56 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $251 −$4 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $142 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $130 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,167 −$5 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $58 −$4 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $438 −$4 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $243 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $436 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $52 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $64 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 07 $55 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $107 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $66 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $66 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $42 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $44 17h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 96¢ $79 18h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $77 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $49 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $52 29h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $16 29h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $16 36h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 37h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 43h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $50 43h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $51 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $48 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $56 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $60 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $61 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.48 · official $67.48 (match) · 725 history records