Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CC 0xcc4f…3fba other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$134
politics 18% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 86% 71% -5.1%
≤30d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 86% 71% -5.1%
≤90d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 86% 71% -5.1%
all 7 +8.1% -2.2% 86% 71% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 71% -5.1%
10% -11.5% 29% -14.1%
15% -20.1% 29% -22.4%
20% -27.9% 14% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$105 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage10d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 +$31 +40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$11 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $107 +$58 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$19 +21%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $111 −$105 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 86¢ $54 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $77 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $65 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $107 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $88 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $6 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $111 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records