Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc4c…d6c6 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%32W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$17
economics 16% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 12 -9.3% -18.0% 67% 42% -13.2%
≤90d 56 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 43% -9.8%
all 56 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 43% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 43% -9.8%
10% -14.9% 36% -18.4%
15% -23.1% 27% -26.3%
20% -30.6% 16% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses32 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage87d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 26 $131 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 15 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $854 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +38%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 20 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +26%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $281 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $283 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 09 $1,041 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $833 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 31 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 51¢ $61 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 53¢ $65 3h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 52¢ $65 3h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 51¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 48d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records