Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CC 0xcc49…3626 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+6%) realized +$71 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$37
world 33% +$1
other 9% +$24
crypto 4% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +38.2% +25.0% 80% 70% -4.0%
≤30d 10 +38.2% +25.0% 80% 70% -4.0%
≤90d 16 +28.5% +16.3% 62% 56% -2.0%
all 28 +19.4% +8.1% 61% 46% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 46% +0.1%
10% -2.3% 43% -9.5%
15% -11.7% 32% -18.3%
20% -20.4% 21% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage167d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 62¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +149%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$7 +132%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +66%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +46%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 10 $11 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 10 $15 +$5 +33%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$84 +408%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $57 −$29 -50%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $21 −$21 -99%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $20 +$31 +156%
UFC 324: Hokit vs. Freeman (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 24 $20 +$9 +43%
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jan 24 $17 +$4 +23%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $17 $0 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 01 $10 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $10 $0 -1%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jan 01 $80 +$7 +9%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Dec 31 $20 −$3 -13%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Dec 31 $24 +$16 +68%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Dec 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $12 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $14 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $8 31m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $3 31m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $5 33m
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 34m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 37m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $11 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 82¢ $15 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 69¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 79¢ $39 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $104 35d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Mateusz Rebecki 37¢ $29 36d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Grant Dawson 44¢ $20 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 65¢ $21 36d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 58¢ $28 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $20 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 59 history records